Halderon's eighth annual CEO Confidence Index draws on responses from 1,200 chief executives across 38 economies. Optimism has rebounded from the 2024 trough, but the composition of confidence has changed. CEOs are betting more on productivity-enhancing capital investment, less on headcount expansion, and they are explicitly pricing geopolitical fragmentation into how they run their businesses.
Headline: confidence is back, but it is selective
The composite confidence index sits at 64, up from 51 a year ago and the highest reading since 2018. The rebound has not been even. CEOs in technology, energy and select industrial sectors report markedly higher confidence than peers in consumer goods or commercial real estate. Where companies have line of sight to AI-related demand, sustainable infrastructure or industrial-policy programmes, confidence is pronounced; elsewhere it is more muted.
Capex up, headcount steady
62% of CEOs plan to increase capital investment in the next 12 months — the highest reading since 2018. Hiring intentions, by contrast, are flat: 38% plan to increase headcount, 36% to maintain it and 26% to reduce. AI productivity gains are quietly absorbing the role of additional headcount in many growth plans. The same revenue ambition that would have meant 8% more people two years ago is now being pursued with closer to 2% more.
Geopolitics is now the top external risk
For the first time in the survey's history, geopolitical fragmentation eclipses inflation as the top-cited external risk. 71% of CEOs name it among their top three concerns. The behavioural response is significant: 58% of CEOs report having changed at least one major sourcing decision in the last 12 months because of geopolitical considerations, and 41% have moved a planned capital project to a different region.
AI moves from possibility to plan
Two-thirds of CEOs now report formal enterprise AI strategies with measurable financial commitments. The conversation has shifted from "how should we think about AI" to "how do we accelerate the production deployment of the use cases that already work". The leaders we admire are tracking AI maturity not by experiment count but by deployed-use-cases-with-financial-impact, which is a far more demanding metric.
The talent picture has changed
After three years of acute talent shortages, CEOs report the labour market easing in many functions, but the constraint has not gone away — it has migrated. The shortage is now concentrated in AI engineering, regulatory and government affairs, climate and sustainability, and senior operations leadership in regulated industries. Wage inflation in those categories has continued even as it has moderated elsewhere.
Capital allocation discipline is reasserting itself
After the abundance of the post-pandemic period, CEOs report a return of investment-committee discipline. 64% have raised the hurdle rate for new investments compared to two years ago. Buybacks remain attractive but selectively — companies with credible organic investment plans are choosing to deploy capital internally rather than return it. The dispersion between disciplined allocators and the rest is widening.
Climate has moved from board topic to operating topic
Climate is no longer the once-a-year sustainability-committee item. 73% of CEOs report climate is now a regular operating topic in management forums. The leaders we studied are governing climate with the same rigor as financial performance — measurable interim targets, capital-allocation gates, supplier engagement and a credible internal carbon price.
Trust and reputation as strategic capital
Trust in institutions remains low, but CEOs report that companies retain higher trust than governments or media in most of the economies surveyed. The leaders we admire are deliberate about converting that trust into operating advantage — building authentic stakeholder programmes, being more transparent about capital allocation, and treating reputation as a balance-sheet item rather than a communications afterthought.
Regional differences are widening
North American CEOs are most bullish on AI-driven productivity. European CEOs are most worried about energy costs and regulatory complexity. Asia-Pacific CEOs are most likely to be increasing both capex and headcount, even as their confidence on near-term demand is more cautious. Latin American CEOs are the most bullish on commodity cycles and infrastructure investment. The era of broadly synchronised global confidence is over.
Implications for boards
Three implications stand out from this year's data. First, productivity is the new primary lever — boards should ensure management teams are credibly measuring it, not narrating it. Second, geopolitical exposure is now an operating reality, and boards that have not built the capability are behind. Third, the AI agenda has moved past strategy to operations; boards should be asking about deployed value, not strategy decks.
A CEO action list
Tighten the productivity narrative — measurable, traceable, defensible. Build the geopolitical risk capability inside the company, not at a vendor. Move AI from showcase to operating model. Re-anchor the capital allocation conversation against today's hurdle rates rather than the prior cycle's. And, most importantly, make sure the leadership team is constructed to lead the company you are trying to build, not the one you have.